Global Natural Gas Markets Continue to Grow and Evolve
by Bob Shively, Enerdynamics President and Lead Facilitator
Imagine needing to explain to your next-door neighbor in the U.S. why cold weather in Asia has caused their heating bill to rise, or why geopolitical events in Europe are resulting in higher electricity prices. Let’s consider why energy professionals need to be prepared to do so.
Global natural gas demand is projected to grow by approximately 9% through 2030, driven primarily by Asia's expanding economies and the Middle East's energy transition initiatives, according to the International Energy Agency's recently released Gas 2025 report. Meeting this growing demand requires a fundamental reshaping of global gas supply chains. An unprecedented wave of LNG production capacity, shifting domestic production patterns, and declining pipeline trade around the world are converging to transform how different regions access natural gas. These shifts will have a dramatic impact on the U.S. natural gas marketplace, causing domestic markets to be increasingly tied to global developments.
Demand growth to continue with Asia at the center
Global natural gas demand is projected to grow 1.5% annually through 2030, adding 380 billion cubic meters (13.4 trillion cubic feet) each year. Asia Pacific drives half this growth, with China alone representing a quarter of the global increase. The Middle East will add over 50 billion cubic feet/yr
(1.8 trillion cubic feet) through oil-to-gas switching in Saudi Arabia's power sector. European demand will decline 8% as renewables expand, while North American growth will remain modest. Globally, industry and energy production/refining account for 45% of demand growth, the power sector over one-third, and transport 10%.
Supply will increasingly depend on liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Between 2024 and 2030, approximately 300 billion cubic meters per year (10.3 trillion cubic feet per year) of new LNG export capacity is expected to come online—nearly half of the current global LNG trade. The United States and Qatar account for over 70% of this new capacity. By 2030, the United States could supply one-third of global LNG, up from 20% in 2024.
Meanwhile, long-distance piped gas trade is expected to decline by almost 55 billion cubic feet (1.9 trillion cubic feet) between 2024 and 2030. Europe faces the steepest reductions with piped imports projected to fall dramatically. Russia's deliveries to the EU are assumed to halt by January 2028, while Norwegian deliveries will decline as domestic production drops. Conversely, Russia's piped gas exports to China will
expand by 75% (almost 25 bcm) via new pipelines, although Central Asian exports are declining due to upstream issues in Uzbekistan.
Domestic production patterns vary dramatically. China's output will expand by over 20% by 2030. Elsewhere in Asia, Bangladesh and Pakistan face declining domestic production, and India’s demand is growing, resulting in increasing reliance on LNG imports. In South America, Argentina's shale gas output is growing at a rate of 5% annually, while Brazil's production surged 20% in 2025. These developments are transforming Central and South America from net LNG importer to net exporter by 2030. Europe's domestic production sees only marginal gains as new Turkish and Romanian sources barely offset North Sea declines, leaving the continent increasingly LNG-dependent.
Prices are expected to be lower globally but higher in the U.S.
After elevated prices in 2024-2025, global natural gas prices are expected to moderate significantly. The IEA forecasts European (TTF) and Asian spot (JKM) prices could converge toward U.S. LNG marginal costs between 2027 and 2030, averaging $8.00-8.50/MMBtu—40% below 2019-2024 levels. But growing export demand is likely to push U.S. gas prices higher. Current Henry Hub forward prices suggest an average increase of 15% in the next five years compared to 2019 to 2024.
The gas business must address emissions
A downside to the growth of LNG is the significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the delivery chain. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is emerging as critical for reducing LNG's emissions intensity with projects in Qatar, Australia, and Indonesia already functioning to remove some emissions. In some parts of the world, buyers are
demanding reduced emissions. So, despite costs, CCUS is shifting from demonstration to deployment and will increasingly influence financing. Addressing methane leakage, flaring, electrification of processes, and efficiency improvements will also be required to reduce emissions.
Looking ahead
Moving forward, U.S. consumers and energy professionals must recognize that the U.S. has joined a global natural gas marketplace. While domestic gas demand may stay static or only grow slowly, global demand for U.S. production will increase markets for U.S. production. The results will be positive for U.S. gas producers but will likely result in higher prices for U.S. consumers. This affects not only gas consumers but also electricity users since gas generation is the marginal supply in most U.S. electric markets. Price volatility will depend on global events, not just domestic factors. Gas traders, utility gas buyers, electric generators, and large consumers will all need to become experts on global gas markets. And utility representatives will need to be able to explain the impacts to their gas and electric customers.
This blog post is based on analysis from the International Energy Agency's Gas 2025 report. For more detailed information, visit www.iea.org.
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