Five Years Later: How Battery Storage, Hydrogen, and DER Markets Have Transformed the Energy Landscape
by Bob Shively, Enerdynamics President and Lead Facilitator
In 2020, Enerdynamics explored three emerging trends poised to reshape the energy industry: the rise of battery storage, the global race for green hydrogen development, and FERC's groundbreaking Order 2222, opening wholesale markets to distributed energy resources. Five years later, let’s look at how these predictions have materialized and what they mean for energy professionals navigating today's rapidly evolving business.
Battery storage: From promise to ubiquity
Five years ago, we predicted that grid battery storage would soon rival pumped hydroelectric storage capacity, with projections showing U.S. battery growth from 1,200 MW in 2020 to nearly 7,500 MW by 2025. That forecast proved conservative with over 37,000 MW as of late 2025. Growth has exceeded expectations as lithium-ion costs have plummeted and utility-scale deployments have accelerated across the country. What was once a novelty is now standard infrastructure planning. Some projections suggest battery capacity will triple over the next five years to more than 100,000 GW. 
Over recent years, battery storage has evolved from primarily serving peak shaving and time-shifting applications to becoming an essential grid reliability asset. The California ISO now routinely dispatches gigawatts of battery capacity during evening ramps when solar generation drops, preventing what were once precarious supply situations. Texas has similarly embraced batteries following the 2021 winter storm, recognizing their value for fast frequency response and emergency reserves. Texas has shown the ability to handle record electric demand without problems, largely due to the state’s access to battery storage. Customers are also investing in battery storage with an estimated 7 to 8 GW as of 2025.
For energy professionals, this shift means battery economics must now be integrated into resource planning, rate design, and grid operations. Customer service teams field questions about residential storage incentives, while planners evaluate batteries as alternatives to traditional transmission upgrades. The technology we anticipated would become "ubiquitous" has indeed arrived, fundamentally changing how utilities and their consumers manage their systems.
Green hydrogen: A different race than expected
In 2020, we framed green hydrogen as a competition between the European Union and China, with the United States "on the sidelines." The subsequent five years have proven this to be true. The U.S. initially emerged as a player through infrastructure legislation and tax credits that allocated billions for hydrogen hubs. However, the Trump administration's 2025 cuts—canceling over $3 billion in hydrogen projects primarily in Democratic states—have curtailed this momentum. Many U.S. projects appear unviable without federal assistance. 
Meanwhile, Europe and China continue building out hydrogen infrastructure largely uninterrupted. China now controls 60 percent of global electrolizer manufacturing and achieves costs 30 percent below European competitors through scale and state support. Both regions are advancing, while U.S. federal commitment has become politicized and uncertain.
But, the economics of green hydrogen remain challenging everywhere. Green hydrogen costs currently range from three to 10 times more expansion than hydrogen produced using natural gas. These high costs explain why many projects have stalled and why government subsidies remain essential. The market has also matured beyond simple "green versus blue" hydrogen debates. Rather than competing visions, the industry now recognizes different pathways serve different timelines: green hydrogen (renewable-powered electrolysis) is the long-term solution but faces cost barriers; blue hydrogen (natural gas with carbon capture) offers nearer-term transition but depends on proving carbon capture effectiveness; gray hydrogen (conventional fossil) still dominates but faces carbon pricing pressure and concerns over continuing to emit greenhouse gases. The question has shifted from which color "wins" to how each fits specific applications.
For energy professionals, this creates complexity. Gas utilities explore hydrogen blending, and electric generators consider hydrogen-fueled turbines while questioning long-term economics. Competition for renewable electricity between direct electrification and hydrogen production intensifies. Most critically in the U.S., the retreat of U.S. federal support raises questions about American competitiveness in global markets and the economics of producing green hydrogen domestically.
FERC Order 2222: Implementation reality meets regulatory vision
FERC Order 2222 was described in 2020 as having "the potential to result in radical restructuring of the electricity industry" by opening wholesale markets to aggregated distributed energy resources (DERs). Five years into implementation, the reality has been more evolutionary than revolutionary, though no less significant.
The ISOs and RTOs have filed compliance plans and begun onboarding DER aggregators, but the process has revealed substantial technical and coordination challenges. State-by-state differences in interconnection and aggregation rules, utility concerns about distribution system impacts, and the complexity of coordinating thousands of small resources have slowed deployment. Nevertheless, virtual power plants are now bidding into wholesale markets, and the mechanisms for two-way energy flow are being established.
The order's long-term impact may be less about immediate market participation and more about establishing the regulatory foundation for a transformed grid. It has accelerated utility thinking about DER integration, pushed state regulators to harmonize rules, and created business models for aggregators that didn't exist before. For energy professionals across all functions, Order 2222 represents an ongoing shift requiring new skills in coordination, data management, and customer engagement. Most in the industry now agree that a world with two-way flows integrating DERs and central large-scale generation is the future.
Looking forward
These three trends illustrate how the energy transformation unfolds through both dramatic breakthroughs and patient implementation. Battery storage achieved its promise faster than expected, green hydrogen has struggled with high costs and fluctuating political support, and DER market participation is proving that regulatory vision takes time to become operational reality. Understanding these trajectories helps energy professionals anticipate what comes next and position their organizations for continued evolution.
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